Pad Man might lose approx. 25-30% of business or nearly 25 crores due to clash with Padmaavat

By Fenil Seta -

January 15, 2018 - 8:00 AM IST

Clashes have now become a part of life for Bollywood and trade. But nobody had anticipated that Akshay Kumar-starrer Pad Man, which looked exciting and easily seemed like 2018’s first Rs. 100 crore film would have to clash with the season’s biggest controversial film Padmaavat. The historical action film was to release initially on December 1, 2017 but got pushed ahead to the Censor woes and violent protests. After the makers got a go-ahead from the Central Board of Film Certification (CBFC), the makers started looking for a date and announced that they would be arriving on Republic Day and thereby clash with Pad Man. Pad Man was in a better space earlier as it was clashing with Sidharth Malhotra-starrer Aiyaary, which was a smaller film and had limited buzz. But now, Pad Man will face the heat as Padmaavat is way bigger in terms of scale, team and obviously, the buzz.

Pad Man might lose approx. 25-30% of business or nearly 25 crores due to clash with Padmaavat

We asked people in the trade how much Pad Man would be affected if it releases with Padmaavat. Trade analyst Atul Mohan says, “It depends what kind of welcome Padmaavat gets. As of now, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have banned the film and other states may join. Depending on where all it gets a release, we can gauge about the losses that Pad Man might face. Exhibitors are also sceptical as they fear that their properties might get damaged if they screen Padmaavat. Years ago, when Bandit Queen faced issues, the Central government had made it clear that they approve of the film and no state can ban it. As of now, the film is facing problems in those states that have a BJP rule, which is also at the Centre. Hence, Padmaavat ’s screen count might be less than Pad Man overall. Anyways, Pad Man and Aiyaary were to release and a lot of exhibitors had already committed to showing Pad Man. So in such a scenario, 10% of Pad Man’s business can get affected. And if Padmaavat gets a smooth, peaceful release pan-India, then 30% of Pad Man’s collections can be affected.”

Leading distributor Rajesh Thadani meanwhile says, “Pad Man would lose around 20-30% provided Padmaavat releases smoothly”. According to Harveen Singh, distributor from Rajasthan, “Pad Man would lose 25% of its business.” Taran Adarsh doesn’t give a number and simply says, “If Padmaavat and Pad Man release together, then not just screens and shows but even footfalls will get divided.”

Trade expert Komal Nahta also gives an in-depth analysis as he says, “It’s difficult to say how much its earnings are going to be affected but yes, it will be affected in 2 major ways. One, If Pad Man was coming with Aiyaary, then it would have got 65% of the shows and the latter would have got 35% of the shows. Now it’s going to be a reverse case of sorts. Now Padmaavat would get 60% while Pad Man will get 40% of the shows. Secondly, since Padmaavat looks like a family film, is in the news, has a more exciting star cast and is directed by Sanjay Leela Bhansali, it will become the first choice for many audiences. Pad Man would become the second choice. With Aiyaary, Pad Man would have been the first choice.” He continues, “This does not mean Padmaavat won’t be affected. After all, the audiences will be divided. Had Padmaavat come solo and Pad Man come solo, both would have been at advantage. But the one that would be affected more is Pad Man, unless God forbid, Padmaavat is a bad film.”

One more disadvantage for Pad Man is that if certain groups vandalize theatres showing Padmaavat, then even Pad Man can get affected in these places. When asked to comment on this aspect, Komal Nahta states, “In that case, both films will get affected. People might just keep away from the cinemas. Hence, Pad Man can definitely come in the cross fire.” Komal also says, “Pad Man will have an advantage in the states where Padmaavat is not releasing.”

Harveen Singh agrees with Komal Nahta as he says, “If theatres showing Padmaavat are vandalized, even Pad Man can get affected as people would be scared to venture out. The crucial first three days might be affected then for both the movies.” Taran Adarsh’s views on this bit were on the same lines, “If disturbances do arise, then both films can get affected.” Rajesh Thadani makes a very crucial observation, “Yes, Pad Man can get affected if Padmaavat faces protests post-release. But on the other hand, it can also benefit as exhibitors might remove Padmaavat and put Pad Man instead”

Girish Johar, film trade and business analyst, emphasizes, “The situation is very peculiar this time. It’s not just two films coming together on a particular date. Padmaavat is facing issues from certain influential groups. Hence, audiences might shy away not just from Padmaavat, but also Pad Man since they don’t want to get into problems. So it’s difficult to ascertain as to will what extent will Pad Man be affected. But definitely there will be some dent in Pad Man’s collections due to it clashing with a bigger film and the expected disruptions in the screening. As of now, it’s difficult to give a number as we don’t know yet which states will not be showcasing the film.” He signs off by saying, “Eventually, the best film will run. It’s a holiday weekend and both the movies can do well. The film that would be good is bound to work in the long run. Pad Man may comparatively have a lesser start. But definitely it can catch up later on.”

As of now, it’s a wait-and-watch situation as nobody is sure about the screen-sharing ratio and also most importantly, how many states are going to allow Padmaavat to have a release. Harveen Singh says, “I guess by January 20, we’ll know what the situation is. If everything is in control, then there shouldn’t be a problem. Padmaavat is one of the biggest films of the year and even the exhibitors would want to screen it.” Taran Adarsh agrees to this and states, “As of now, no one can predict because you never know how the situation might change in the next 14 days.”